Global Open NAP: Track II - Main systems and processes globally
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The following is a global NAP based on best available science of the IPCC as depicted in its 5th assessment report. The focus is on common impacts on systems and processes covering regions globally, based on main changes being experienced as a result of global climate changes.
Hazards, Key Vulnerabilities, Key Risks, and Emergent Risks[edit | edit source]
IPCC WGII 5AR Cross Chapter Box: Table KR-1.Examples of hazards /stressors, key vulnerabilities, key risks, and emergent risks.
(Edited and updated)
IPCC WGII 5AR Cross Chapter Box - Original
Given this summary by the IPCC covering all regions, one remaining step is to identify exposed populations and systems. This can be done by spatial analysis of commonly available data layers.
| Hazard | Key vulnerabilities | Key risks | Emergent risks | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrestrial and Inland Water Systems (Chapter 4) | Rising air, soil, and water temperature (Sections 4.2.4, 4.3.2, 4.3.3) | Exceedance of eco-physiological climate tolerance limits of species (limited coping and adaptive capacities), increased viability of alien organisms | Risk of loss of native biodiversity, increase in non-native organism dominance | Cascades of native species loss due to interdependencies |
| Health response to spread of temperature-sensitive vectors (insects) | Risk of novel and/or much more severe pest and pathogen outbreaks | Interactions among pests, drought, and fire can lead to new risks and large negative impacts on ecosystems | ||
| Change in seasonality of rain (Section 4.3.3) | Increasing susceptibility of plants and ecosystem services, due to mismatch between plant life strategy and growth opportunities | Changes in plant functional type mix leading to biome change with respective risks for ecosystems and ecosystem services | Fire-promoting grasses grow in winter-rainfall areas and provide fuel in dry summers. | |
| Ocean Systems (Chapter 6) | Rising water temperature, increase of (thermal and haline) stratification, and marine acidification (Section 6.1.1) | Tolerance limits of endemic species surpassed (limited coping and adaptive capacities), increased abundance of invasive organisms, high susceptibility and sensitivity of warm water coral reefs and respective ecosystem services for coastal communities (Sections 6.3.1, 6.4.1) | Risk of loss of endemic species, mixing of ecosystem types, increased dominance of invasive organisms. Increasing risk of loss of coral cover and associated ecosystem with reduction of biodiversity and ecosystem services (Section 6.3.1) | Enhancement of risk as a result of interactions, e.g., acidification and warming on calcareous organisms (Section 6.3.5) |
| New vulnerabilities can emerge as a result of shifted productivity zones and species distribution ranges, largely from low to high latitudes (Sections 6.3.4, 6.5.1), shifting fishery catch potential with species migration (Sections 6.3.1, 6.5.2, 6.5.3) | Risks due to unknown productivity and services of new ecosystem types (Sections 6.4.1, 6.5.3) | Enhancement of risk due to interactions of warming, hypoxia, acidification, new biotic interactions (Sections 6.3.5, 6.3.6) | ||
| Expansion of oxygen minimum zones and coastal dead zones with stratification and eutrophication (Section 6.1.1) | Increasing susceptibility because hypoxia tolerance limits of larger animals surpassed, habitat contraction and loss for midwater fishes and benthic invertebrates (Section 6.3.3) | Risk of loss of larger animals and plants, shifts to hypoxia-adapted, largely microbial communities with reduced biodiversity (Section 6.3.3) | Enhancement of risk due to expanding hypoxia in warming and acidifying oceans (Section 6.3.5) | |
| Enhanced harmful algal blooms in coastal areas due to rising water temperature (Section 6.4.2.3) | Increasing susceptibility and limited adaptive capacities of important ecosystems and valuable services due to already existing multiple stresses (Sections 6.3.5, 6.4.1) | Increasing risk due to enhanced frequency of dinoflagellate blooms and respective potential losses and degradations of coastal ecosystems and ecosystem services (Section 6.4.2) | Disproportionate enhancement of risk due to interactions of various stresses (Section 6.3.5) | |
| Food Security and Food Production Systems (Chapter 7) | Rising average temperatures and more frequent extreme temperatures (Sections 7.1, 7.2, 7.4, 7.5) | Susceptibility of all elements of the food system from production to consumption, particularly for key grain crops | Risk of crop failures, breakdown of food distribution and storage processes | Increase in the global population to about 9 billion combined with rising temperatures and other trace gases such as ozone affecting food production and quality. Upper temperature limit to the ability of some food systems to adapt |
| Extreme precipitation and droughts (Section 7.4) | Crops, pasture, and husbandry are susceptible and sensitive to drought and extreme precipitation. | Risk of crop failure, risk of limited food access and quality | Flood and droughts affect crop yields and quality, and directly affect food access in most developing countries. (Section 7.4) | |
| Urban Areas (Chapter 8) | Inland flooding (Sections 8.2.3, 8.2.4) | Large numbers of people exposed in urban areas to flood events. Particularly susceptible are people in low-income informal settlements with inadequate infrastructure (and often on flood plains or along river banks). These bring serious environmental health consequences from overwhelmed, aging, poorly maintained, and inadequate urban drainage infrastructure and widespread impermeable surfaces. Local governments are often unable or unwilling to give attention to needed flood-related disaster risk reduction. Much of the urban population unable to get or afford housing that protects against flooding, or insurance. Certain groups are more sensitive to ill health from flood impacts, which may include increased mosquito- and water-borne diseases. | Risks of deaths and injuries and disruptions to livelihoods/incomes, food supplies, and drinking water | In many urban areas, larger and more frequent flooding impacting much larger population. No insurance available or impacts reaching the limits of insurance. Shift in the burden of risk management from the state to those at risk, leading to greater inequality and property blight, abandonment of urban districts, and the creation of high-risk/high-poverty spatial traps |
| Coastal flooding (including sea level rise and storm surge) (Sections 8.1.4, 8.2.3, 8.2.4) | High concentrations of people, businesses, and physical assets including critical infrastructure exposed in low-lying and unprotected coastal zones. Particularly susceptible is the urban population that is unable to get or afford housing that protects against flooding or insurance. The local government is unable or unwilling to give needed attention to disaster risk reduction. | Risks from deaths and injuries and disruptions to livelihoods/incomes, food supplies, and drinking water | Additional 2 billion or so urban dwellers expected over the next three decades.
Sea level rise means increasing risks over time, yet with high and often increasing concentrations of population and economic activities on the coasts. No insurance available or reaching the limits of insurance; shift in the burden of risk management from the state to those at risk leading to greater inequality and property blight, abandonment of urban districts, and the creation of high¬risk/high-poverty spatial traps | |
| Heat and cold (including urban heat island effect) (Section 8.2.3) | Particularly susceptible is a large and often increasing urban population of infants, young children, older age groups, expectant mothers, people with chronic diseases or compromised immune system in settlements exposed to higher temperatures (especially in heat islands) and unexpected cold spells. Inability of local organizations for health, emergency, and social services to adapt to new risk levels and set up needed initiatives for vulnerable groups | Risk of mortality and morbidity increasing, including shifts in seasonal patterns and concentrations due to hot days with higher or more prolonged high temperatures or unexpected cold spells. Avoiding risks often most difficult for low-income groups | Duration and variability of heat waves increasing risks over time for most locations owing to interactions with multiple stressors such as air pollution | |
| Water shortages and drought in urban regions (Sections 8.2.3, 8.2.4) | Lack of piped water to homes of hundreds of millions of urban dwellers. Many urban areas subject to water shortages and irregular supplies, with constraints on increasing supplies. Lack of capacity and resilience in water management regimes including rural–urban linkages. Dependence on water resources in energy production systems | Risks from constraints on urban water provision services to people and industry with human and economic impacts. Risk of damage and loss to urban ecology and its services including urban and peri-urban agriculture. | Cities’ viability may be threatened by loss or depletion of freshwater sources—including for cities dependent on distant glacier melt water or on depleting groundwater resources. | |
| Changes in urban meteorological regimes lead to enhanced air pollution. (Section 8.2.3) | Increases in exposure and in pollution levels with impacts most serious among physiologically susceptible populations. Limited coping and adaptive capacities, due to lacking implementation of pollution control legislation of urban governments | Increasing risk of mortality and morbidity, lowered quality of life. These risks can also undermine the competitiveness of global cities to attract key workers and investment. | Complex and compounding health crises | |
| Geo-hydrological hazards (salt water intrusion, mud / land slides, subsidence) (Sections 8.2.3, 8.2.4) | Local structures and networked infrastructure (piped water, sanitation, drainage, communications, transport, electricity, gas) particularly susceptible. Inability of many low-income households to move to housing on safer sites. | Risk of damage to networked infrastructure. Risk of loss of human life and property Potential for large local and aggregate impacts | Knock-on effects for urban activities and well-being | |
| Wind storms with higher intensity (Sections 8.1.4, 8.2.4) | Substandard buildings and physical infrastructure and the services and functions they support particularly susceptible. Old and difficult to retrofit buildings and infrastructure in cities
Local government unable or unwilling to give attention to disaster risk reduction (limited coping and adaptive capacities) |
Risk of damage to dwellings, businesses, and public infrastructure. Risk of loss of function and services. Challenges to recovery, especially where insurance is absent | Challenges to individuals, businesses, and public agencies where the costs of retrofitting are high and other sectors or interests capture investment budgets; potential for tensions between development and risk reduction investments | |
| Changing hazard profile including novel hazards and new multi-hazard complexes (Sections 8.1.4, 8.2.4) | Newly exposed populations and infrastructure, especially those with limited capacity for multi-hazard risk forecasting and where risk reduction capacity is limited, e.g., where risk management planning is overly hazard specific including where physical infrastructure is predesigned in anticipation of other risks (e.g., geophysical rather than hydrometeorological) | Risks from failures within coupled systems, e.g., reliance of drainage systems on electric pumps, reliance of emergency services on roads and telecommunications. Potential of psychological shock from unanticipated risks | Loss of faith in risk management institutions. Potential for extreme impacts that are magnified by a lack of preparation and capacity in response | |
| Compound slow-onset hazards including rising temperatures and variability in temperature and water (Sections 8.2.2, 8.2.4) | Large sections of the urban population in lowand middle-income nations with livelihoods or food supplies dependent on urban and periurban agriculture are especially susceptible. | Risk of damage to or degradation of soils, water catchment capacity, fuel wood production, urban and peri-urban agriculture, and other productive or protective ecosystem services. Risk of knockon impacts for urban and peri-urban livelihoods and urban health | Collapsing of peri-urban economies and ecosystem services with wider implications for urban food security, service provision, and disaster risk reduction | |
| Climate change–induced or intensified hazard of more diseases and exposure to disease vectors (Sections 8.2.3, 8.2.4) | Large urban population that is exposed to food-borne and water-borne diseases and to malaria, dengue, and other vector-borne diseases that are influenced by climate change | Risk due to increases in exposure to these diseases | Lack of capacity of public health system to simultaneously address these health risks with other climate-related risks such as flooding | |
| Rural Areas (Chapter 9) | Drought in pastoral areas (Sections 9.3.3.1, 9.3.5.2) | Increasing vulnerability due to encroachment on pastoral rangelands, inappropriate land policy, misperception and undermining of pastoral livelihoods, conflict over natural resources, all driven by remoteness and lack of voice | Risk of famine Risk of loss of revenues from livestock trade | Increasing risks for rural livelihoods through animal disease in pastoral areas combined with direct impacts of drought |
| Effects of climate change on artisanal fisheries (Sections 9.3.3.1, 9.3.5.2) | Artisanal fisheries affected by pollution and mangrove loss, competition from aquaculture, and the neglect of the sector by governments and researchers as well as complex property rights | Risk of economic losses for artisanal fisherfolk, due to declining catches and incomes and damage to fishing gear and infrastructure | Reduced dietary protein for those consuming artisanally caught fish, combined with other climate-related risks | |
| Water shortages and drought in rural areas (Section 9.3.5.1.1) | Rural people lacking access to drinking and irrigation water. High dependence of rural people on natural resource-related activities. Lack of capacity and resilience in water management regimes (institutionally driven). Increased water demand from population pressure | Risk of reduced agricultural productivity of rural people, including those dependent on rainfed or irrigated agriculture, or high-yield varieties, forestry, and inland fisheries. Risk of food insecurity and decrease in incomes. Decreases in household nutritional status (Section 9.3.5.1) | Impacts on livelihoods driven by interaction with other factors (water management institutions, water demand, water used by non-food crops), including potential conflicts for access to water. Water-related diseases | |
| Human Health (Chapter 11) | Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme heat | Older people living in cities are most susceptible to hot days and heat waves, as well as people with preexisting health conditions. (Section 11.3) | Risk of increased mortality and morbidity during hot days and heat waves. (Section 11.4.1) Risk of mortality, morbidity, and productivity loss, particularly among manual workers in hot climates | The number of elderly people is projected to triple from 2010 to 2050. This can result in overloading of health and emergency services. |
| Increasing temperatures, increased variability in precipitation | Poorer populations are particularly susceptible to climate-induced reductions in local crop yields. Food insecurity may lead to undernutrition. Children are particularly vulnerable. (Section 11.3) | Risk of a larger burden of disease and increased food insecurity for particular population groups. Increasing risk that progress in reducing mortality and morbidity from undernutrition may slow or reverse. (Section 11.6.1) | Combined effects of climate impacts, population growth, plateauing productivity gains, land demand for livestock, biofuels, persistent inequality, and ongoing food insecurity for the poor | |
| Increasing temperatures, changing patterns of precipitation | Non-immune populations who are exposed to water- and vector-borne diseases that are sensitive to meteorological conditions (Section 11.3) | Increasing health risks due to changing spatial and temporal distribution of diseases strains public health systems, especially if this occurs in combination with economic downturn. (Section 11.5.1) | Rapid climate and other environmental change may promote emergence of new pathogens. | |
| Increased variability in precipitation | People exposed to diarrhea aggravated by higher temperatures, and unusually high or low precipitation (Section 11.3) | Risk that the progress to date in reducing childhood deaths from diarrheal disease is compromised (Section 11.5.2) | Increased rate of failure of water and sanitation infrastructure due to climate change leading to higher diarrhea risk | |
| Livelihoods and Poverty (Chapter 13) | Increasing frequency and severity of droughts, coupled with decreasing rainfall and/or increased unpredictability of rainfall (Sections 13.2.1.2, 13.2.1.4, 13.2.2.2) | Poorly endowed farmers (high and persistent poverty), particularly in drylands, are susceptible to these hazards, since they have a very limited ability to compensate for losses in water-dependent farming systems and/or livestock. | Risk of irreversible harm due to short time for recovery between droughts, approaching tipping point in rainfed farming system and/or pastoralism | Deteriorating livelihoods stuck in poverty traps, heightened food insecurity, decreased land productivity, outmigration, and new urban poor in LICs and MICs |
| Floods and flash floods in informal urban settlements and mountain environments, destroying physical assets (e.g., homes, roads, terraces, irrigation canals) (Sections 13.2.1.1, 13.2.1.3, 13.2.1.4) | High exposure and susceptibility of people, particularly children and elderly, as well as disabled in flood-prone areas. Inadequate infrastructure, culturally imposed gender roles, and limited ability to cope and adapt due to political and institutional marginalization and high poverty adds to the susceptibility of these people in informal urban settlements; limited political interest in development and building adaptive capacity | Risk of high morbidity and mortality due to floods and flash floods. Factors that further increase risk may include a shift from transient to chronic poverty due to eroded human and economic assets (e.g., labor market) and economic losses due to infrastructure damage. | Exacerbated inequality between better-endowed households able to invest in flood-control measures and/or insurance and increasingly vulnerable populations prone to eviction, erosion of livelihoods, and outmigration | |
| Increased variability of precipitation; shifts in mean climate and extreme events (Sections 13.2.1.1, 13.2.1.4) | Limited ability to cope owing to exhaustion of social networks, especially among the elderly and female-headed households; mobilization of labor and food no longer possible | Hazard combines with vulnerability to shift populations from transient to chronic poverty due to persistent and irreversible socioeconomic and political marginalization. In addition, the lack of governmental support, as well as limited effectiveness of response options, increase the risk. | Increasing yet invisible multidimensional vulnerability and deprivation at the convergence of climatic hazards and socioeconomic stressors | |
| Successive and extreme events (floods, droughts) coupled with increasing temperatures and rising water demand (Sections 13.2.1.1, 13.2.1.5) | Rural communities are particularly susceptible, due to the marginalization of rural water users to the benefit of urban users, given political and economic priorities (e.g., Australia, Andes, Himalayas, Caribbean). | Risk of loss of rural livelihoods, severe economic losses in agriculture, and damage to cultural values and identity; mental health impacts (including increased rates of suicide) | Loss of rural livelihoods that have existed for generations, heightened outmigration to urban areas; emergence of new poverty in MICs and HICs | |
| Sea level rise (Sections 13.1.4, 13.2.1.1, 13.2.2.1, 13.2.2.3) | High number of people exposed in low-lying areas coupled with high susceptibility due to multidimensional poverty, limited alternative livelihood options among poor households, and exclusion from institutional decision-making structures | Risk of severe harm and loss of livelihoods. Potential loss of common-pool resources; of sense of place, belonging, and identity, especially among indigenous populations | Loss of livelihoods and mental health risks due to radical change in landscape, disappearance of natural resources, and potential relocation; increased migration | |
| Increasing temperatures and heat waves (Sections 13.2.1.5, 13.2.2.3, 13.2.2.4) | Agricultural wage laborers, small-scale farmers in areas with multidimensional poverty and economic marginalization, children in urban slums, and the elderly are particularly susceptible. | Risk of increased morbidity and mortality due to heat stress, among male and female workers, children, and the elderly, limited protection due to socioeconomic discrimination and inadequate governmental responses | Declining labor pool for agriculture coupled with new challenges for rural health care systems in LICs and MICs; aging and low-income populations without safety nets in HICs at risk | |
| Increased variability of rainfall and/or extreme events (floods, droughts, heat waves) (Sections 13.2.1.1, 13.2.1.3, 13.2.1.4, 13.2.1.5) | People highly dependent on rainfed agriculture are particularly at risk. Persistent poverty among subsistence farmers and urban wage laborers who are net buyers of food with limited coping mechanisms | Risk of crop failure, spikes in food prices, reduction in consumption to protect household assets, risk of food insecurity, shifts from transient to chronic poverty due to limited ability to reduce risks | Food riots, child food poverty, global food crises, limits of insurance and other risk-spreading strategies | |
| Changing rainfall patterns (temporally and spatially) | Households or people with a high dependence on rainfed agriculture and little access to alternative modes of income | Risks of crop failure, food shortage, severe famine | Coincidence of hazard with periods of high global food prices leads to risk of failure of coping strategies and adaptation mechanisms such as crop insurance (risk spreading). | |
| Stressor from soaring demand (and prices) for biofuel feedstocks due to climate policies | Farmers and groups that have unclear and/or insecure land tenure arrangements are exposed to the dispossession of land due to land grabbing in developing countries. | Risk of harm and loss of livelihoods for some rural residents due to soaring demand for biofuel feedstocks and insecure land tenure and land grabbing | Creation of large groups of landless farmers unable to support themselves. Social unrest due to disparities between intensive energy production and neglected food production | |
| Increasing frequency of extreme events (droughts, floods), e.g., if 1:20 year drought/flood becomes 1:5 year drought/flood | Pastoralists and small farmers subject to damage to their productive assets (e.g., herds of livestock; dykes, fences, terraces) | Risk of the loss of livelihoods and harm due to shorter time for recovery between extremes. Pastoralists restocking after a drought may take several years; in terraced agriculture, need to rebuild terraces after flood, which may take several years | Collapse of coping strategies with risk of collapsing livelihoods. Adaptation mechanisms such as insurance fail due to increasing frequency of claims. | |
| Emergent Risks and Key Vulnerabilities (Chapter 19) | Warming and drying (precipitation changes of uncertain magnitude) (WGI AR5 TS 5.3; SPM; Sections 11.3, 12.4) | Limits to coping capacity to deal with reduced water availability; increasing exposure and demand due to population increase; conflicting demands for alternative water uses; sociocultural constraints on some adaptation options (Sections 19.2.2, 19.3.2.2, 19.6.1.1, 19.6.3.4) | Risk of harm and loss due to livelihood degradation from systematic constraints on water resource use that lead to supply falling far below demand. In addition, limited coping and adaptation options increase the risk of harm and loss. (Sections 19.3.2.2, 19.6.3.4) | Competition for water from diverse sectors (e.g., energy, agriculture, industry) interacts with climate changes to produce locally severe shortages. (Sections 19.3.2.2, 19.6.3.4) |
| Changes in regional and seasonal temperature and precipitation over land (WGI AR5 TS 5.3; SPM; Sections 11.3, 12.4) | Communities highly dependent on ecosystem services (Sections 19.2.2.1, 19.3.2.1) which are negatively affected by changes in regional and seasonal temperature | Risk of large-scale species richness loss over most of the global land surface. 57 ± 6% of widespread and common plants and 34 ± 7% of widespread and common animals are expected to lose ≥50% of their current climatic range by the 2080s leading to loss of services. (Section 19.3.2.1) | Widespread loss of ecosystem services, including: provisioning, such as food and water; regulating, such as the control of climate and disease; supporting, such as nutrient cycles and crop pollination; and cultural, such as spiritual and recreational benefit (Sections 19.3.2.1, 19.6.3.4) | |
| Africa (Chapter 22) | Increasing temperature | Children, pregnant women, and those with compromised health status are particularly at risk for temperature-related changes in diarrheal and vector-borne diseases, and for temperature-related reductions in crop yields. Outdoor workers, older adults, and young children are most susceptible to hot weather and heat waves. (Sections 22.3.5.2, 22.3.5.4) | Risk of changes in the geographic distribution, seasonality, and incidence of infectious diseases, leading to increases in the health burden. Risk of increased burdens of stunting in children. Risk of increase in morbidity and mortality during hot days and heat waves | Interactions among factors lead to emerging and re-emerging epidemics. |
| Populations dependent on aquatic systems and aquatic ecosystem services that are sensitive to increased water temperatures | Loss of aquatic ecosystems and risks for people who might depend on these resources; reduction in freshwater fisheries production (Sections 22.3.2.2, 22.3.4.4) | Risk of loss of livelihoods due to interactions of loss of ecosystem services and other climate-related stressors on poor communities | ||
| Rural and urban populations whose food and livelihood security is diminished | Risk of harm and loss due to increased heat stress on crops and livestock resulting in reduced productivity; increased food storage losses due to spoilage (Sections 22.3.4.1, 22.3.4.2) | Range expansion of crop pests and diseases to high-elevation agroecosystems (Section 22.3.4.3) | ||
| Extreme events, e.g., floods and flash floods (and drought) | Population groups living in informal settlements in highly exposed urban areas; women and children often the most vulnerable to disaster risk (Sections 22.3.6, 22.4.3) | Increasing risk of mortality, harm and losses due to water logging triggered by heavy rainfall events | Compounded risk of epidemics including diarrheal diseases (e.g., cholera) | |
| Susceptible groups include those who experience diminished access to food resulting from reduced capacity to transport, store, and market food, such as the urban poor. | Risk of food shortages and of damages to the food system due to storms and flooding | Food price spikes due to convergence of climatic and non-climatic forces that reduce food access for the poor whose income is disproportionately spent on food (Section 22.3.4.5) | ||
| Children, pregnant women, and those with compromised health status are particularly vulnerable to reduced access to safe water and improved sanitation and increasing food insecurity. (Sections 22.3.5.2, 22.3.5.3) | Risk of crop and livestock losses from drought Risk of reduced water supply and quality for household use. (Sections 22.3.4.1, 22.3.4.2) Risk of increased incidence of food- and water-borne diseases (e.g., cholera) and undernutrition. Risk of drinking water contamination due to heavy precipitation events and flooding (Section 22.3.5.2) | Compound effects of high temperature and changes in rainfall on human and natural systems. Increased incidence of stunting in children (Section 22.3.5.3) | ||
| Europe (Chapter 23) | Extreme weather events (Section 23.9) | Sectors with limited coping and adaptive capacity as well as high sensitivity to these extreme events, such as transport, energy, and health, are particularly susceptible. | Risk of new systemic threats due to stress on multiple and interconnected sectors. Risk of failure of service provision of one or more sectors | Disproportionate intensification of risk due to increasing interdependencies |
| Climate change increases the spatial distribution and seasonality of pests and diseases. (Section 23.4.1, 23.4.3, 23.4.4) | High susceptibility of plants and animals that are exposed to pests and diseases | Risk of increases in crop losses and animal diseases or even fatalities of livestock | Increasing risks due to limited response options and various feedback processes in agriculture, e.g., use of pesticides or antibiotics to protect plants and livestock increases resistance of disease vectors | |
| Extreme weather events and reduced water availability due to climate change (Section 23.3.4) | Low adaptive capacity of power systems might lead to limited energy supply as well as higher supply costs during such extreme events and conditions. | Increasing risk of power shortages due to limited energy supply, e.g., of nuclear power plants due to limited cooling water during heat stress | Continued underinvestment in adaptive energy systems might increase the risk of mismatches between limited energy supply during these events and increased demands, e.g., during a heat wave. | |
| Asia (Chapter 24) | Rising average temperatures and more frequent extreme temperatures, as well as changing rainfall patterns (temporally and spatially) | Food systems and food production systems for key grain crops, particularly rice and other cereal crop farming systems, are highly susceptible. (Section 24.4.4.3) | Risk of crop failures and lower crop yield also can increase the risk of major losses for farmers and rural livelihoods. (Section 24.4.4.3) | Increase in Asian population combined with rising temperatures affecting food production. Upper temperature limit to the ability of some food systems to adapt could be reached. |
| Rising sea level | Paddy fields and farmers near the coasts are particularly susceptible. (Section 24.4.4.3) | Risk of loss of arable areas due to submergence (Section 24.4.4.3) | Migration of farming communities to higher elevation areas entails risks for migrants and receiving regions. | |
| Projected increase in frequency of various extreme events (heat wave, floods, and droughts) and sea level rise | Increasing exposure due to convergence of livelihood and properties into coastal megacities. People in areas that are not sufficiently protected against natural hazards are particularly susceptible | Risk of loss of life and assets due to coastal floods accompanied by increasing vulnerabilities. | Projected increase in disruptions of basic services such as water supply, sanitation, energy provision, and transportation systems, which themselves could increase vulnerabilities | |
| Australasia (Chapter 25) | Rising air and sea surface temperatures, drying trends, reduced snow cover, increased intensity of severe cyclones, ocean acidification (Section 25.2; Table 25-1; Figure 25-4; WGI AR5 Chapter 14 and Atlas) | Species that live in a limited climatic range and that suffer from habitat fragmentation as well as from external stressors (pollution, runoff, fishing, tourism, introduced predators, and pests) are especially susceptible. (Sections 25.6.1, 25.6.2) | Risk of significant change in community composition and structure of coral reefs and montane ecosystems and risk of loss of some native species in Australia (Sections 25.6.1, 25.6.2, 25.10.2) | Increasing risk from compound extreme events across time and space, and cumulative adaptation needs, with recovery and risk reduction measures hampered further by impacts and responses reaching across different levels of government (Sections 25.10.2, 25.10.3; Box 25-9) |
| Increased extreme rainfall related to flood risk in many locations (Section 25.2; Table 25-1) | Adaptation deficit of existing infrastructure and settlements to current flood risk; expansion and densification of urban areas; effective adaptation includes transformative changes such as land-use controls and retreat. (Sections 25.3, 25.10.2; Box 25-8) | Increased frequency and intensity of flood damage to infrastructure and settlements in Australia and New Zealand (Box 25-8; Section 25.10.2) | Increasing risk from compound extreme events across time and space, and cumulative adaptation needs, with recovery and risk reduction measures hampered further by impacts and responses reaching across different levels of government (Sections 25.10.2, 25.10.3; Box 25-9) | |
| Continuing sea level rise, with projections spanning a particularly large range and continuing beyond 2100, even under mitigation scenarios (Section 25.2; Box 25-1; WGI AR5 Chapter 13) | Long-lived and high asset value coastal infrastructure and low-lying ecosystems are highly susceptible. Expansion of coastal populations and assets into coastal zones increases the exposure. Conflicting priorities constrain adaptation options and limit effective response strategies. (25.3, Box 25-1) | Increasing risks to coastal infrastructure and low-lying ecosystems in Australia and New Zealand, with widespread damages toward the upper end of projected ranges (Box 25-1; Sections 25.6.1, 25.6.2, 25.10.2) | Increasing risk from compound extreme events across time and space, and cumulative adaptation needs, with recovery and risk reduction measures hampered further by impacts and responses reaching across different levels of government (Sections 25.10.2, 25.10.3; Box 25-9) | |
| North America (Chapter 26) | Increases in frequency and/or intensity of extreme events, such as heavy precipitation, river and coastal floods, heat waves, and droughts (Sections 26.2.2, 26.3.1, 26.8.1) | Physical infrastructure in a declining state in urban areas particularly susceptible. Also increases in income disparities and limited institutional capacities might result in larger proportions of people susceptible to these stressors due to limited economic resources. (Sections 26.7, 26.8.2) | Risk of harm and loss in urban areas, particularly in coastal and dry environments due to enhanced vulnerabilities of social groups, physical systems, and institutional settings combined with the increases of extreme weather events (Section 26.8.1) | Inability to reduce vulnerability in many areas results in an increase in risk more so than change in physical hazard. (Section 26.8.3) |
| Higher temperatures, decreases in runoff, and lower soil moisture due to climate change (Sections 26.2, 26.3) | Vulnerability of small rural landholders, particularly in Mexican agriculture, and of the poor in rural settlements (Sections 26.5, 26.8.2.2) | Risk of increased losses and decreases in agricultural production. Risk of food and job insecurity for small landholders and social groups in regions exposed to these phenomena (Sections 26.5, 26.8.2.2) | Increasing risks of social instability and local economic disruption due to internal migration (Sections 26.2.1, 26.8.3) | |
| Wildfires and drought conditions (Box 26-2) | Indigenous groups, low-income residents in peri-urban areas, and forest systems (Box 26-2; Section 26.8.2) | Risk of loss of ecosystem integrity, property loss, human morbidity, and mortality due to wildfires (Box 26-2; Section 26.8.3) | ||
| Extreme storm and heat events, air pollution, pollen, and infectious diseases (Section 26.6.1) | Susceptibility of individuals is determined by factors such as economic status, preexisting illness, age, and access to assets. (Section 26.6.1) | Increasing risk of extreme temperature-, storm-, pollen-, and infectious diseases–related human morbidity or mortality (Section 26.6.2) | ||
| River and coastal floods, and sea level rise (Sections 26.2.2, 26.4.2, 26.8.1) | Increasing exposure of populations, property, as well as ecosystems, partly resulting from overwhelmed drainage networks. Groups and economic sectors that highly depend on the functioning of different supply chains, public health institutions that can be disrupted, and groups that have limited coping capacities to deal with supply chain interruptions and disruptions to their livelihoods are particularly susceptible. (Sections 26.7, 26.8.1) | Risk of property damage, supply chain disruption, public health, water quality impairment, ecosystem disruption, infrastructure damage, and social system disruption from urban flooding due to river and coastal floods and floods of drainage networks (Sections 26.4.2, 26.8.1) | Multiple risks from interacting hazards on populations’ livelihoods, infrastructure, and services (Sections 26.7, 26.8.3) | |
| Central and South America (Chapter 27) | Reduced water availability in semi-arid regions and regions dependent on glacier meltwater; flooding in urban areas due to extreme precipitation (Sections 27.2.1, 27.3.3) | Groups that cannot keep agricultural livelihoods and are forced to migrate are especially vulnerable. Limited infrastructure and planning capacity can further increase the lack of coping and adaptive capacities to rapid changes expected (precipitation), especially in large cities. | Risk of loss of human lives, livelihood, and property | Increase in infectious diseases. Economic impacts due to reallocation of populations |
| Ocean acidification and warming (Section 27.3.3; Box CC-OA) | Sensitivity of coral reef systems to ocean acidification and warming | Risk of loss of biodiversity (species) and risk of a reduced fishing capacity with respective impacts for coastal livelihoods | Economic losses and impact on food (fishery) production in certain regions | |
| Extremes of drought/ precipitation (Sections 27.2.1, 27.3.4) | Elevated CO2 decreases nutrient contents in plants, especially nitrogen in relation to carbon in food products. | Risk of loss of (food) production and productivity in some regions where extreme events may occur. Need to adjust diet due to decrease in food quality (e.g., less protein due to lower nitrogen assimilation). Decrease in bioenergy production | Strong economic impacts related to the need to move crops to more suitable regions. Teleconnections (related to food quality) related to the intense exportation of food by the region. Impacts on energy system and carbon emissions with consequent increase in fossil fuel demand. | |
| Higher temperatures and humidity lead to a spread of vector-borne diseases in altitude and latitude. (Section 27.3.7) | People exposed and vulnerable to vector-borne diseases and an increase in mosquito biting rates that increase the probability of human infections | Risk of increase in morbidity and in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs); risk of loss of human lives; risk of decrease in school and labor productivity | High economic impacts owing to the necessity to increase the financing of health programs, as well as the costs of DALYs, increase in hospitals and medical infrastructure adequate to cope with increasing disease incidence rates, and the spread of diseases to newer regions | |
| Polar Regions (Chapter 28) | Loss of multi-year ice and reductions in the spatial extent of summer sea ice (Sections 28.2.5, 28.3.2, 28.4.1) | Indigenous communities that depend on sea ice for traditional livelihoods are vulnerable to this hazard, particularly due to loss of breeding and foraging platforms for marine mammals | Risk of loss of traditional livelihoods and food sources. | Top-down shifts in food webs |
| Ecosystems are vulnerable owing to the shifts in the distribution and timing of ice algal and ocean phytoplankton blooms. | Risk of disruption of synchronized timing of zooplankton ontogeny and availability of prey. Increased variability in secondary production while zooplankton adapt to shifts in timing. Risks also to local marine food webs | Bottom up shifts in food webs. Potential changes in pelagic and benthic coupling | ||
| Ocean acidification (Sections 28.2.2, 28.3.2) | Tolerance limits of endemic species surpassed. Impacts on exoskeleton formation for some species and alteration of physiological and behavioral properties during larval development | Localized loss of endemic species, local impacts on marine food webs | Localized declines in commercial fisheries. Local declines in fish, shellfish, seabirds, and marine mammals | |
| Shifts in boundaries of marine eco-regions due to rising water temperature, shifts in mixed layer depth, changes in the distribution and intensity of ocean currents (Sections 28.2.2, 28.3.2) | Marine organisms that are susceptible to spatial shifts are particularly vulnerable. | Risk of changes in the structure and function of marine systems and potentially species invasions | Disputes over international fisheries and shared stocks | |
| Declining sea ice, changes in snow and ice timing and state, decreasing predictability of weather (Sections 28.1, 28.4.1) | Many traditional subsistence food sources— especially for indigenous peoples—such as Arctic marine and land mammals, fish, and waterfowl. Various traditional livelihoods are susceptible to these hazards. | Risk of loss of habitats and changes in migration patterns of marine species | Enhancement of risk to food security and basic nutrition—especially for indigenous peoples—from loss of subsistence foods and increased risk to subsistence hunters’, herders’, and fishers’ health and safety in changing ice conditions | |
| Increased river and coast al flooding and erosion and thawing of permafrost (Sections 28.2.4, 28.3.1, 28.3.4) | Rural and remote communities as well as urban communities in low-lying Arctic areas are exposed. Susceptibility and limited coping capacity of community water supplies due to potential damages to infrastructure. | Community and public health infrastructure damaged resulting in disease from contamination and sea water intrusion | Reduced water quality and quantity may result in increased rates of infection, other medical problems, and hospitalizations. | |
| Extreme and rapidly changing weather, intense weather and precipitation events, rapid snow and ice melt, changing river and sea ice conditions, permafrost thaw (Section 28.2.4) | People living from subsistence travel and hunting, herding, and fishing, for example indigenous peoples in remote and isolated communities, are particularly susceptible. | Accidents, physical/mental injuries, death, and cold-related exposure, injuries, and diseases | Enhanced risks to safe travel or subsistence hunting, herding, fishing activities affect livelihoods and well-being. | |
| Diminished sea ice; earlier sea ice melt-out; faster sea ice retreat; thinner, less predictable ice in general; greater variability in snow melt/freeze; ice, weather, winds, temperatures, precipitation (Sections 28.2.5, 28.2.6, 28.4.1) | Livelihoods of many indigenous peoples (e.g., Inuit and Saami) depend upon subsistence hunting and access to and favorable conditions for animals. These livelihoods are susceptible. Also marine ecosystems are susceptible (e.g., marine mammals) | Risk of loss of livelihoods and damage due to, e.g., more difficult access to marine mammals associated with diminishing sea ice (a risk to the Inuit), and loss of access by reindeer to their forage under snow due to ice layers formed by warming winter temperatures and “rain on snow” (a risk to the Saami). | Enhanced risk of loss of livelihoods and culture of increasing numbers of indigenous peoples, exacerbated by increasing loss of lands and sea ice for hunting, herding, fishing due to enhanced petroleum and mineral exploration, and increased maritime traffic | |
| Small Islands (Chapter 29) | Increases in intensity of tropical cyclones (WGI AR5 Sections 14.6, 14.8.4) | Various countries and communities are vulnerable to these hazards because of their high dependence on natural and ecological systems for security of settlements and tourism (Section 29.3.3.1), human health (Section 29.3.3.2), and water resources (Section 29.3.2). | Risk of loss of ecosystems, settlements, and infrastructure, as well as negative impacts on human health and island economies (Figure 29-4) | Increased risk of interactions of damages to ecosystems, settlements, island economies, and risks to human life (Section 29.6; Figure 29-4) |
| Ocean warming and acidification leading to coral bleaching (Sections 29.3.1.2, 30.5.4.2, 30.5.6.1.1, 30.5.6.2) | Tropical island communities are highly dependent on coral reef ecosystems for subsistence life styles, food security, coastal protection and beach, and reef-based tourist economic activity, and hence are highly susceptible to the hazard of coral bleaching. (Sections 29.3.1.2, 30.6.2.1.2) | Risk of decline and possible loss of coral reef ecosystems through thermal stress. Risk of serious harm and loss of subsistence lifestyles. Risk of loss of coastal protection and beaches, risk of loss of tourist revenue (Sections 29.3.1.1, 29.3.1.2) | Impacts on human health and loss of subsistence lifestyles. Potential increase in internal migration/urbanization (Section 29.3.3.3; Chapter 9) | |
| Sea level rise (Sections 29.3.1.1, 30.3.1.2; WGI AR5 Section 3.7.1) | Many small island communities and associated settlements and infrastructure are in low-lying coastal zones (high exposure) and are also vulnerable to increasing inundation, erosion and wave incursion. (Sections 5.3.2, 29.3.1.1; Figure 29-2) | Risk of loss and harm due to sea level rise in small island communities. Global mean sea level is likely to increase by 0.35 to 0.70 m for Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 during the 21st century, threatening low-lying coastal areas and atoll islands. (Section 29.4.3, Table 29-1; WGI AR5 Section 13.5.1, Table 13.5) | Incremental upwards shift in sea-level baselines results in increased frequency and extent of marine flooding during high tides and episodic storm surges. These events could render soils and fresh groundwater resources unfit for human use before permanent inundation of low-lying areas. (Sections 29.3.1.1, 29.3.2, 29.3.3.1, 29.5.1) | |
| The Ocean (Chapter 30) | Increasing ocean temperatures. Increased frequency of thermal extremes | Corals and other organisms whose tolerance limits are exceeded are particularly susceptible (especially CBS, STG, SES, and EUS ocean regions). (Sections 6.2.2.1, 6.2.2.2, 30.5.2, 30.5.4, 30.5.5; Boxes CC-CR, 30.5.6, CC-OA) | Risk of increased mass coral bleaching and mortality (loss of coral cover) with severe risks for coastal fisheries, tourism, and coastal protection (Sections 6.3.2. 6.3.5, 5.4.2.4, 7.2.1.2, 6.4.1.4, 29.3.1.2, 30.5.2, 30.5.3, 30.5.4, 30.5.5; Box CC-CR) | Loss of coastal reef systems, risk of decreased food security and reduced livelihoods, and reduced coastal protection (Sections 7.2.1.2, 30.6.2.1, 30.6.5) |
| Marine species and ecosystems as well as fisheries and coastal livelihoods and tourism that cannot cope or adapt to changing temperatures and changes in the distribution are particularly vulnerable, especially for HLSBS, CBS, STG, and EBUE. (Sections 6.3.2, 6.3.4, 7.3.2.6, 30.5; Box CC-BIO) | Risk for fishery and coastal livelihoods. Fishery opportunity changes as stock abundance may rise or fall; increased risk of disease and invading species impacting ecosystems and fisheries (Sections 6.3.5, 6.4.1.1, 6.5.3, 7.3.2.6, 7.4.2, 29.5.3, 29.5.4) | Significant risk of fishery collapse may develop as the capacity of fisheries to resist the following is exceeded: a) fundamental change to fishery composition, and b) the increased migration of disease and other organisms. (Sections 6.5.3, 7.5.1.1.3) | ||
| Coastal ecosystems and communities that might be exposed to phenomena of elevated rates of microbial respiration leading to reduced oxygen at depth and increased spread of dead zones are particularly vulnerable (particularly for EBUE, SES, EUS) | Risk of loss of habitats and fishery resources as well as losses of key fisheries species. Oxygen levels decrease, leading to impacts on ecosystems (e.g., loss of habitat) and organisms (e.g., physiological performance of fish) resulting in reduced capture of key fisheries species. | Increasing risk of loss of livelihoods | ||
| Deep sea life is sensitive to hazards and to change given the very constant conditions under which it has evolved. (30.1.3.1.3, 30.5.2, 30.5.5) | Risk of fundamental changes in conditions associated with deep sea (e.g., oxygen, pH, carbonate, CO2, temperature) drive fundamental changes that result in broad-scale changes throughout the ocean. (Sections 30.1.3.1.3, 30.5.2, 30.5.5; Boxes CC-UP, CC-NPP) | Changes in the deep ocean may be a prelude to ocean wide changes with planetary implications. | ||
| Rising ocean acidification | Reef systems, corals, and coastal ecosystems that are exposed to a reduced rate of calcification and greater decalcification leading to potential loss of carbonate reef systems, corals, molluscs, and other calcifiers in key regions, such as the CBS, STG (Section 6.2.2.2) | Risk of the alteration of ecosystem services including risks to food provisioning with impacts on fisheries and aquaculture (Sections 6.2.5.3, 7.2.1.2, 7.3.2, 7.4.2,) | Income and livelihoods for communities are reduced as productivity of fisheries and aquaculture diminish. (Sections 7.5.1.1.3, 30.6) | |
| Marine organisms that are susceptible to changes in pH and carbonate chemistry imply a large number of changes to the physiology and ecology of marine organisms (particularly in CBS, STG, SES regions). (Sections 6.2.5, 6.3.4, 30.3.2.2) | Risk of fundamental shifts in ecosystems composition as well as organism function occur, leading to broad scale and fundamental change. Income and livelihoods from dependent communities are affected as ecosystem goods and services decline, with the prospect that recovery may take tens of thousands of years. (Section 6.1.1.2) | Risk to ecosystems and livelihoods is increased by the potential for interaction among ocean warming and acidification to create unknown impacts. (Section CC-OA) | ||
| Coastal systems are increasingly exposed to upwelling in some areas, which results in periods of high CO2, low O2 and pH. (Box CC¬UP; Sections 6.2.2.2, 6.2.5.3) | Risk of loss and harm to fishery and aquaculture operations and respective livelihoods (e.g., oyster cultivation), especially those exposed periodically to harmful conditions during elevated upwelling, which trigger adaptation responses. (Section 30.6.2.1.4) | Background pH and carbonate chemistry are also such that harmful conditions are always present (avoiding impacts via adaptation not possible any more). (Section 30.6.2.1.4) | ||
| Increased stratification as a result of ocean warming; reduced ventilation | Ocean ecosystems are vulnerable due to the reduced regeneration of nutrients as mixing between the ocean and its surface is reduced (EUS, STG, and EBUE). (Sections 6.2, 6.3, 6.5, 30.5.2, 30.5.4, 30.5.5) | Risk of productivity losses of oceans and respective negative impacts on fisheries. The concentration of inorganic nutrients in the upper layers of the ocean is reduced, leading to lower rates of primary productivity. (Box CC-NPP) | Reduced primary productivity of the ocean impacts fisheries productivity leading to lower catch rates and effects on livelihoods (Section 6.4.1.1; Box CC-NPP) | |
| Ecosystems and organisms that are sensitive to decreasing oxygen levels (Sections 30.5.2, 30.5.3, 30.5.5, 30.5.6, 30.5.7) | Increased risk of dead (hypoxic) zones reducing key ecosystems and fisheries habitat (Sections 6.1.1.3, 30.3.2.3) | |||
| Changes to wind, wave height, and storm intensity | Shipping and industrial infrastructure is vulnerable to wave and storm intensity. (Section 30.6.2) | Risk of increasing losses and damages to shipping and industrial infrastructure | Risk of accidents increases for enterprises such as shipping, as well as deep sea oil gas and mineral extraction |
Abbreviations: CBS = Coastal Boundary Systems; EBUE = Eastern Boundary Upwelling Ecosystems; EUS = Equatorial Upwelling Systems; HIC, LIC, MIC = high-, low-, and medium-income countries; HLSBS = High-Latitude Spring Bloom Systems; SES = Semi-Enclosed Seas; STG = Sub-Tropical Gyres.
Source: Birkmann, J., R. Licker, M. Oppenheimer, M. Campos, R. Warren, G. Luber, B.C. O’Neill, and K. Takahashi, 2014: Cross-chapter box on a selection of the hazards, key vulnerabilities, key risks, and emergent risks identified in the WGII contribution to the fifth assessment report. In: Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Part A: Global and Sectoral Aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Field, C.B., V.R. Barros, D.J. Dokken, K.J. Mach, M.D. Mastrandrea, T.E. Bilir, M. Chatterjee, K.L. Ebi, Y.O. Estrada, R.C. Genova, B. Girma, E.S. Kissel, A.N. Levy, S. MacCracken, P.R. Mastrandrea, and L.L. White (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp. 113-121.
