Togo

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The phenomenon of climate change continues to increase drastically, despite international efforts to limit global warming to below 2°C by 2100. This situation calls for greater adaptation efforts by developing countries, which are the most vulnerable. Aware of these challenges, Togo, after having drawn up its National Adaptation Action Plan (NAPA) in 2009, has been engaged since 2014 in the process of national planning for adaptation to climate change (NAPA), in order to prevent and limit the negative consequences of climate change on its development in the medium and long term. Context for NCCAP Preparation.

The formulation of the national climate change adaptation plan (NCCAP) has been made with reference to the guidelines of the Least Developed Countries Expert Group (LEG), in accordance with decision 1/CP.16 and the country's specific circumstances. This process was carried out in a participatory approach by national experts and consultants with the support of German cooperation through ICZM. The National Adaptation Planning (NAP) process aims to promote, in the medium and long term, the integration of adaptation to climate change (CCA) into the country's development policies and strategies in order to reduce the vulnerability of development sectors and strengthen their resilience. The process was conducted in two stages:

• The preparation stage marked by:
• the launch of the national adaptation planning process ;
• Identification and mapping of available information, assessment of gaps and needs related to the creation of an enabling environment for the NAP process;
• Assessment of capacity gaps and weaknesses related to the NAP process in the first SNAP (Stocktaking National Adaptation Planning) workshop;
• capacity building of the members of the technical coordination committee and sectoral actors ;
• the definition of the terms of reference and establishment of the technical committee for the coordination of the process of integrating the CCA into planning and budgeting in Togo by interministerial order N°008/2014/MPDAT/MEF /MERF of 21 July 2014.
• The formulation and dissemination phase of the NCCAP includes :
• capacity building of actors involved in planning and budgeting ;
• the formulation of the CCA integration guide in planning documents ;
• the launch of the NCCAP development process ;
• the drafting of the NCCAP document;
• National validation of the PNACC document and the guide for integrating CCA into planning documents in Togo ;
• Assessment of the progress made since the beginning of the NAP process in terms of capacity building as well as identification of new capacity building needs achieved during the second SNAP workshop;
• submission of the NCCAP to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Secretariat; and
• dissemination and communication around the NAP process.

Participatory mechanism set up for the NAP process The NAP process has been the subject of national stakeholder consultation at two levels. On a limited scale, the consultation involved the Ministry of Environment and Forest Resources, the Ministry of Development Planning and the Ministry of Economy and Finance, with the aim of gaining the support and ownership of key stakeholders for the piloting of the NAP process.

On a broader scale, the consultation involved all actors from the public, private and civil society sectors, women's groups and parliamentarians. This consultation had three major objectives:

• inform and communicate in order to have a shared vision of the NAP process and to gather stakeholders' opinions and recommendations ;
• mobilize all actors from the public and private sectors, civil society, women and parliamentarians to ensure the involvement of all in the process; and
• formulate a roadmap for the NAP process.

The National Climate Change Adaptation Plan (NCCAP) is based on : - at the national level: on the Strategy for Accelerated Growth and Employment Promotion (SCAPE), whose identified growth pillars are sectors vulnerable to climate change, and the Nationally Determined Planned Contributions (NDPC) document. - at the international level: on taking into account international conventions and sub-regional policies and programmes related to climate change, desertification, biological diversity, fragile ecosystems and natural disaster risk reduction. However, according to the results of the capacity assessment carried out in particular within the framework of the capacity self-assessment and the NAP process (SNAP workshops), a major capacity building effort would be necessary to improve stakeholder participation and enable them to play their roles effectively during the implementation phase of the NCCAP.

State of play

Biophysical, social and economic conditions

Togo is a West African country with a tropical climate under the influence of two trade winds: the harmattan and the monsoon. Trend studies over the period 1961-2012 show an increase in temperature versus a decrease in rainfall and the number of rainy days, as well as altered rainfall patterns that disrupt crop calendars.

The hydrographic system of Togo is composed of three main basins: (i) the Volta basin in the north of Togo; (ii) the Mono basin in the centre and south-east of the country; and (iii) the Lake Togo basin with the group of coastal rivers, the Zio and the Haho in the south. From the pedological point of view, five main soil classes are listed in Togo : (i) tropical ferruginous soils; (ii) low ferralitic soils; (iii) crude and poorly evolved mineral soils; (iv) vertisols; and (v) hydromorphic soils. Landforms constitute the bulk of Togolese ecosystems whose variety determines a rich biological diversity that provides the main ecological, food, cultural and medicinal services to the population.

Togo has a coastline of about 50 km which extends between 1° and 1°40 east longitude and between 6°05 and 6°50 north latitude. This system is a victim of coastal erosion exacerbated by the rise in sea level as a result of global warming. With 6,191,155 inhabitants in the 2010 census (RGPH, 2010), the Togolese population would increase from 6,835,000 in 2015 to : (i) 7,886,000 inhabitants in 2021; (ii) 8,812,000 inhabitants in 2026; and (iii) 9,575,000 inhabitants by 2030, with an average annual growth rate of about 2.3% between 2010 and 2031 (INSEED, 2015).

According to the UNDP Human Development Report (2015), Togo's Human Development Index (HDI) is 0.484, ranking it 162nd out of 188 countries. This low level of human development is characterized by a strong trend towards poverty, which will affect 55.1% of the Togolese population in 2015, the majority of whom live in rural areas (68.9% of the rural population, as against 37.8% in urban areas). Identified as one of the main causes of natural resource degradation and therefore a human source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, poverty will be exacerbated by climate change. This situation is explained by the fact that the fringe of the population most affected by this phenomenon depends on natural resources and rain-fed agriculture. Togo's overall GDP in 2015 amounts to US$ 4.152 billion, or US$ 578.11 per capita. Its structure in recent years shows that the primary sector occupies 39%, the secondary sector 17% and the tertiary sector 26%. The economic performance achieved by the country over the period 2003 to 2015 is characterized by a real GDP growth rate from 4.95% in 2005 to 5.48% in 2015. Togo depends on foreign assistance with nearly 80% of its public investment.

Political, legal and institutional framework

The "climate change" dimension is taken into account in the national strategic guidelines through the actions included in the third priority area of priority axis 5 of the SCAPE entitled: "Environment, sustainable management of natural resources and living environment" as well as in the risk analysis of the implementation of the strategy. Since April 2014, Togo has been engaged in a process of developing Togo Vision 2030 and, from 2016, in the preparation of its national development plan (PND 2018-2022), which integrates the sustainable development objectives (SDOs), particularly SDO 13, entitled "Take urgent measures to combat climate change and its repercussions".

Sectoral policies are made up of: national environment policy, agricultural policy, energy policy, forestry policy, transport policy, industrial policy, health policy, Togo's national water, hygiene and sanitation policy and urban planning and housing policy. The analysis of sectoral policies shows, overall, that the degree to which adaptation to climate change is taken into account varies greatly from one policy to another and the levels of implementation of adaptation measures through programmes are low. Encouraging progress has been made in sectors such as agriculture, energy, forestry, water and health. However, a greater effort would be needed to operationalise these policies.

In legal terms, the international texts relating to climate change consist mainly of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992), the Kyoto Protocol (1997) and the Paris Climate Agreement (2015). The main texts adopted at the national level are Law N°2008-05 of 30 May 2008 on the framework law on the environment and Law N°2008-009 of 19 June 2008 on the forestry code. The institutional framework for the implementation of the UNFCCC is provided by the Ministry of Environment and Forest Resources (MERF) through its technical services, the national climate change committee and the national sustainable development commission (CNDD), as well as other stakeholders.

Climate Change Scenarios in Togo

Climate observations in Togo over the period 1961-2012, show a 1°C warming compared to the period 1961-1985, with annual variations ranging between 0.7 and 1.2°C; and reductions in annual rainfall accumulation ranging between 3 and 81 mm, with, however, a resumption of rainfall observed in some stations since 2005. This trend of increasing rainfall in conjunction with global warming seems to be confirmed in climate projections for 2025, 2050, 2075 and 2100.

Indeed, according to climate scenarios, climate warming in Togo would continue with average temperature increases between +0.9 and +4.5°C, i.e. variations between 3.21 and 16.87% compared to the 1961-1985 period. As for rainfall, it is expected to increase by between +5 and +29 mm, corresponding to variations of between 0.10 and 0.55% compared to the 1961-1985 period. Warming would be weaker in the mountains of Togo and would gradually increase towards both the north and south of the country, while annual cumulative rainfall would be greater there and would gradually decrease towards the periphery. Regionally, the Plateaux region would experience the least warming compared to the extreme north of the country encompassing the prefectures of Tone, Tandjoaré, Kpendjal and Cinkassé where temperature increases would be the highest.

Unfortunately, these climate scenarios do not provide information on changes in the distribution of precipitation. However, the climate in Togo is expected to dry out further because rainfall increases are too small to compensate for the increase in evapotranspiration resulting from the large temperature increases. As for sea level, it would reach heights of 34.16 to 74.22 cm in 2100 for the optimistic scenario and 90.28 to 120 cm in 2100 for the pessimistic scenario.

Taking into account climate change, the main climate risks identified in Togo are : (i) floods; (ii) drought; (iii) high temperatures; (iv) seasonal shifts; (v) poor rainfall distribution; (vi) high winds; (vii) land erosion; (viii) landslides/floodfalls; and (ix) sea level rise.

Assessing the impacts and vulnerability of sectors to climate change

Vulnerability analysis reveals that all sectors of economic growth are vulnerable to climate change. The results by sector are as follows:

Energy Sector

A reduction of up to 46.4% in the national wood energy potential due to a drop in the productivity of natural formations and plantations between 18.3% and 27%, exposing Togo to a deficit of wood energy, mainly households that depend 53% on firewood and 40.6% on charcoal; which would intensify women's drudgery, especially in rural areas. With regard to hydropower, the increase in evapotranspiration would affect the hydropower potential by 7.2%. A deficit of between 27 and 36% in hydroelectric power will be noted by 2050. As far as solar energy is concerned, a potential increase in sunshine would lead to an increase in the efficiency of photovoltaic installations.

Water Resources Sector

Climate change would lead to a sharp decline in groundwater flows and recharge levels, while withdrawals from surface resources would increase by 15% to 50% by 2030, resulting in a deficit that will increase in all regions of the country. Under these conditions, the country will face great difficulties in meeting national drinking water needs. In the particular case of the Lomé zone, overexploitation of the aquifer would result in an increase in the salinity of the water in the pumped aquifers affecting the freshwater potential. In addition, due to climate change, there is a risk of an increase in the proliferation of floating plants (water lettuce, water hyacinth, etc.) offering ideal conditions for the multiplication of vectors of water-related diseases such as malaria. Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use Sector (AFAT)

Sub-sector Agriculture

In the crop production chain, the water deficit, the drying up of the climate and the rise in temperatures will lead to a reduction in crop yields, particularly cereals (maize and sorghum specifically), which are the basis of the Togolese population's diet. This would undermine the country's food security, which will be exacerbated by soaring food prices. In coffee and cocoa producing areas, climate change will lead to the proliferation of insect pests such as mirids and stinking locusts, and the appearance of diseases, the main ones being necrotic coffee decline, swollenshoot and brown rot for cocoa trees, with the impact of reducing yields, export earnings and therefore GDPA. In the event of excessive rainfall, the high humidity will lead to the development of fungi and bacteria that will attack the root systems of plants, causing the wilt of flooded speculations which, together with the proliferation of plant parasitic micro-organisms, weeds and insects, will lead to a sharp drop in agricultural production, exposing populations to food insecurity. The increase in pests and weeds will increase farm maintenance costs, reducing producer income and exposing rural areas to impoverishment.

At the level of the livestock sector, the water deficit and the drying up of the climate will lead to the drying up of watering points for animals, the degradation of pastures, the death of livestock, the drop in income of pastoralists and agro-pastoralists and the rural exodus. During periods of abundant rains, there will be an upsurge of certain diseases, notably fowl plague and trypanosomiasis in cattle, especially zebus. The fishing industry will also experience a decline in fish production due to the strong disruption of fish productivity cycles, salinization of freshwater bodies and also the death of fry. The increase in sea surface water temperature will lead to frequent migrations of some fish species at depth and a decrease in the volume of pelagic resources.

In the forestry sub-sector, the increase in temperature would lead to an increase in evapotranspiration and the resurgence of vegetation fires (due to the drying of the herbaceous stratum). While salt water intrusion into rivers due to sea level rise could affect mangrove productivity. The resulting drop in the productivity of natural formations (forests, savannahs, mangroves, etc.) will lead to a reduction in the national potential for wood energy and labour, which will be exacerbated by the rise in the price of wood products. At the level of the land use and soil sub-sector, the drying up of the climate, the increase in temperatures and evapotranspiration will intensify the leaching and lateralisation of soils already observable in the Eastern Plateaux region (Eastern Mono and Middle Mono prefectures); while heavy rains will increase soil erosion, especially in hilly areas. This will lead to further land degradation, reducing land availability.

Human Settlements and Health Sector

In the Human Settlements sub-sector, the intensification of floods and high winds will affect dwellings (precarious housing and shelters), road infrastructure and socio-economic facilities, with material and human losses and the isolation of localities. In mountain areas, erosion caused by heavy rains will increase the loosening of house foundations and landslides/slides will also wash away some houses.

At the level of the Health sub-sector, vector-borne diseases such as malaria, which affect children aged 0 to 5 years and pregnant women much more, will be amplified, as will water-related diseases such as diarrhoeal diseases and cholera. Droughts and high temperatures will increase the prevalence of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular, respiratory (bronchitis, pneumonia, asthma, etc.) and cerebrospinal diseases (meningitis).

Coastal Zone

In view of its physical and geological characteristics (low, sandy, prone to rapid waterlogging) and the fact that it is the catchment area for the water systems of the three catchment areas, the entire coastal plain will experience an increase in flooding, affecting large areas, including 20 to 35% of the areas not usually flooded. The scale of the floods will be major, mainly in Greater Lomé, where 40 to 50% of the population and 80% of the industrial and hotel infrastructure and facilities reside. At the same time, the rise in sea level combined with probable high tides and storms will intensify coastal erosion and the submersion of low-lying areas, causing spectacular retreats of the coastline between 160 m and 240 m along 30 km of coastline, between the Port and Agbodrafo, by 2030. CCA planning and implementation strategy

Vision, objectives and guiding principles

The formulation of Togo's national climate change adaptation plan (NCCAP) was made with reference to the guidelines of the Least Developed Countries Expert Group (LEG), which was conducted in accordance with decision 1/CP.16. The formulation and implementation of Togo's national plan for adaptation to the adverse effects of climate change is based on the following principles: national ownership, accountability of actors, results-based management, coherence of interventions, sustainability of interventions, gender mainstreaming, equity and partnership. The PNACC covers a period of 5 years (2017-2021) and will be implemented by all national stakeholders: institutions of the Republic, the Government, the National Commission for Sustainable Development, ministerial departments and decentralized structures, local authorities, civil society, private sector actors, universities, research and systematic observation institutions, grass-roots organizations and technical and financial partners.

The vision of Togo's national climate change adaptation plan (PNACC) is: "By 2030, Togo's socio-economic development is sustainable and the resilience of vulnerable populations is strengthened, thanks to the implementation of climate change adaptation measures. ». This vision takes into account the major issues and challenges such as : (i) food and nutritional security; (ii) reduction of poverty and social inequalities; (iii) public health and the living environment; and (iv) protection of the livelihoods of vulnerable groups. In accordance with this vision, the implementation of the PNACC aims to contribute to inclusive and sustainable growth in Togo through the reduction of vulnerabilities, the strengthening of adaptive capacities and the increase of resilience to climate change. Specifically: (i) ensure the systematic integration of CCA into planning and budgeting; (ii) build the capacity of stakeholders; (iii) sensitize decision-makers on the need to integrate CCA into planning documents; (iv) raise awareness to prepare the population to build resilience to climate change; (v) improve local knowledge and know-how and endogenous best practices related to climate change; and (vi) strengthen the framework for dialogue among all national stakeholders for a coordinated response to climate change.

To achieve these objectives, three (03) strategic axes have been selected: (i) Systematic integration of CCA into planning documents; (ii) Implementation of adaptation options and capacity building; (iii) Mobilization of funding for CCA. Systematic integration of CCA into planning documents There are four main phases in the CCA integration process: (i) the preparation or internal incubation phase; (ii) the diagnostic and strategic reflection phase; (iii) the planning or strategic choice phase; and (iv) the implementation, monitoring and evaluation phase. It will be done in both planning and budgeting.

Integrating CCA into planning is the integration of adaptation/adaptation options into development policies, strategies, plans, programmes and projects. To this end, the points of entry are as follows: (i) planning: transforming issues and challenges into strategic directions ; (ii) Programming: the breakdown of the actions relating to each programme/project, including climate-related activities, and projection of targets for results over periods; and (iii) the allocation of resources to planned activities.

As for the integration of CCA in the budgeting process, it consists of drawing up a list of the operations required to carry out each CCA option selected in the strategic development planning system, estimating the time required to complete them and evaluating the respective costs, with a view to incorporating them in the programming, budgeting and monitoring-evaluation instruments. To this end, it will be necessary to ensure that the budget allocation keys to be used allow the CCA to be implemented in the best possible way. This integration of CCA into planning documents will be facilitated by the use of the CCA Integration Guide in Planning Documents developed for this purpose.

Implementation of adaptation options and capacity building

The implementation strategy of Togo's PNACC is underpinned by the results-based approach and the identification and prioritization of adaptation measures. It focuses on the implementation of priority adaptation actions in sectors, capacity building for adaptation planning and implementation, and coordination.

The priority sectors identified, in order of priority, are: agriculture; water resources; coastal erosion; human settlements and health; land use, land-use change and forestry; and energy.

The VAC priority actions identified by national stakeholders are presented in the following table: