Editing Malawi

= Approach for the Open NAP for Malawi =

=== Guiding principles ===

* The NAP is the main vehicle for adaptation planning for the country, and encompasses activities at all relevant scales and levels, from the regional (multi-country level) to the national, sectoral, sub-national and local levels, including for specific municipalities. All recent adaptation strategies and plans will thus be included in the NAP as a master plan for adaptation, indicating what is ongoing and what remains to be addressed. [S/T reporting]


* As a country with limited resources, most adaptation projects will be funded through international sources, with very little dependence on national budgets, at least to begin with. During implementation, activities will need to be well aligned and integrated with sectoral activities funded by government. [Link to GCF Country Programme]


* There are many reporting channels under the UNFCCC and the Paris agreement that require information on adaptation (priorities, key vulnerabilities, adaptation actions, capacity gaps and needs, etc). The work under the process of formulating and implementing the NAP will provide the central basis for adaptation assessment and prioritization, and will inform all necessary reporting on adaptation, in particular, the update of the NDCs by 2020, and future national communications/transparency reports. [NAP informing Draft NDC in 2020]


* The NAP road map  for Malawi includes all activities that contribute to adaptation planning and the NAP in particular since the advent of the NAP decisions in 2010/11, and this is designed to be the guiding rail for all adaptation activities for the country and is the basis for support being received by all those in a position to do so. The recently funded NAP formulation proposal under the GCF Readiness Support is naturally a major form of financial support and will be used to continue the work of analysis, assessment, implementation and further planning. Support from others continues to be very critical for the success of adaptation efforts for the country. [Road Map]


* The office of the UNFCCC Focal Point, housed in the Environmental Affairs Department, is the current custodian of work on the NAP and will continue to work with all relevant ministries, organizations and actors as necessary, maintaining and running the continuing process of adaptation monitoring, assessment and planning, the support the periodic production of NAPs. [National mandate, CC policy/law, Data Policy, coherence with other MEAs]


* The NAP is a living document and will continue to be updated as the need arises, with a view to producing a formal updated version every 5 years. By the same vein, all intermediate outputs  (stocktaking report, road map, assessment reports, framework document, monitoring and evaluation plans, climate investment strategy, etc) will remain living documents and will be updated as new information and new insights arise. [Wiki collection of documents for easy update, later morph into a DIVA – dynamic impacts, vuln and adaptation system]


* The NAP follows the UNFCCC technical guidelines for the NAP process, and the collection of supplements to these guidelines as developed by different organizations and available on NAP Central.


* Applies the NAP-SDG iFrame to manage multiple entry points and coherence with various frameworks being addressed including the SDGs, Sendai Framework, New Urban Agenda, Africa 2063, and relevant national strategies.


* There are several major assessments conducted in the last 5 years, and the approach taken is not to promote yet another vulnerability and risk assessment, rather to build on available information and identify any obvious gaps if any. The concept of risk is adapted, following good examples from countries and organizations that have developed recent guidelines, including New Zealand, and OECD. 


* The traditional approach of arriving at projects as the main outcome of these assessments is improved upon by identifying appropriate methods and metrics that in fact support a risk-based approach.


=== Building on the unfunded PPCR/SPCR ===

There are several ongoing projects and programmes that address adaptation to climate change in Malawi, as well as main development objectives. The NAP will build on these projects and scale up efforts as appropriate.

One approach to make progress on the NAP would be to build on the PPCR/SPCR that was produced in November 2017, but for which CIF/PPCR funding dried up and is now left to find alternative funding sources. The PPCR/SPCR focused on three important sectors of agriculture, fisheries and water resources, and presents five priority programmes to implement proposed adaptation activities. The process of developing the SPCR are similar to that of the NAP, and follow good practice in ensuring full participation of stakeholders, gender responsiveness, and builds on national development priorities.


= The National Context =

(This section will describe key determinants of development for Malawi, focusing on economic, environment and social well being-being)

- Economics: key drivers of economic development, agro-economy, tobacco, tea, sugar, etc.
- Environment: severe degradation due to conversion to low-production ag, charcoal-making, etc ... unique freshwater ecosystem in Lake Malawi, special wildlife reserves important for biodiversity conservation and also tourism, important migration stop overs for birds; Mulanje cedar; vegetation cover over important watersheds and rivers severely degraded impacting the hydrological cycle etc
- Social well-being: poverty and extreme poverty levels and trends ...; low urbanization; gender, youth/demographic structure and changes

= Climate Rationale for Adaptation = 


'''Baseline period 1961 to 1990 and trends to the present'''


Observations since 1960 indicate:

* Temperature increases of approximately 0.9°C, with the most rapid increase in summer months (Dec–Feb), between 1960 and 2006.
* Increase in the number of days (+30 days) and nights (+41 days) considered “hot.”
* Highly variable year-to-year rainfall totals with no statistically significant trends.
* Increased length of dry spells during the rainy season.
* Increased intensity, frequency and magnitude of floods and droughts.


'''Projected climate for the next 20, 50, 100 years'''


* Higher average temperatures of 1–3°C by 2050, with largest increases in early summer months. 
* Increase in the number of days and nights considered “hot” by 2060. 
* Overall increases or decreases in rainfall difficult to project. 
* Later onset/earlier cessation of rainy season. 
* Increase in average monthly rainfall from Dec–Jan and a decrease from Feb–April. 
* Increases in the proportion of rainfall during extreme events of up to 19 percent annually by 2090.

Source: For the summary, USAID 2017. Climate change risk profile Malawi.Fact Sheet.

= Key climatic hazards = 

* Prolonged Drought/dry spells
* Global and regional drought spells
* Torrential rainfall/Change (increase) in frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events
* Local storm events
* Global and regional storm events
* Lightning
* Hot spells/temperature extremes
* Shifting (rainfall/growing) seasons
* Increase in temperatures
* Non-normal annual weather
* Pests and diseases outbreaks associated with climate events
* Disruption of national, regional and global food supply chains
* Wildfire

= Collection of Adaptation Systems for Adaptation analysis =

[[Table of comprehensive list of systems for Malawi]]


= Synthesis of available information on key impacts of climate change =

The following is a selection of published syntheses of recent impacts (simple and complex/cascades)


Insert Table of recent disasters


'''The 2001 Food crisis'''


'''The 2006 Food crisis'''


* After heavy rains on the 9th, on 10 February 2017 flooding along the Lingadzi River in Lilongwe City directly affected 2,000 people living along the river, especially in Area 49 Gulliver, Shire, Senti, Area 47 sector 4, Area 14, Area 46 and Mtandile. Most of the city of Lilongwe was affected, as connecting roads were impassable. People were stranded in the middle of the floods, with more than 20 people requiring rescue by the Malawi Defense Force (by helicopter), and many were displaced. Immediate disaster recovery took at least two months.


* Cyclone Idai made landfall near Beira city, Mozambique, on March 14, 2019, as a Category 2 storm. Its heavy rains and strong winds led to flash flooding, hundreds of deaths, and massive destruction of property and crops. Less than six weeks later, on April 25, Cyclone Kenneth dealt a hard blow to northern Mozambique about 600 miles north of Idai’s impact zone. Catastrophic flooding from the two storms affected close to 2.2 million people in Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Malawi. Idai and Kenneth were two of the top five worst storms to ever hit Mozambique. Together, they’ve caused an unprecedented amount of damage. (https://www.worldvision.org/disaster-relief-news-stories/2019-cyclone-idai-facts) 


* Distant disasters for example Hurricane Katrina in 2004 …


* 2019 heat wave


* Shifts in growing seasons over the last ~15 years

= Short-listed systems for the first iteration of the NAP =

=== SYSTEM: Urban flooding as a planning system ===

'''1. System name:''' Urban flooding management system


'''2. Brief description:'''

The design of cities takes into account some measures for drainage of rainwater, often in open or underground spillovers that carry water to natural waterways/rivers, or some cases, into sewer lines. As climate is changing and when rainfall becomes more intense, drainage systems are often inadequate resulting in urban flooding. 


'''3. Current constraints (factors of production etc):'''

* Drainage channels designed with a maximum flow in mind

* In some cases, no consideration was given to drainage of excess rainwater, especially in unplanned settled areas

* Densely settled areas make it hard or impossible to install or modify drainage channels

* Old drainage systems expensive to upgrade or repair


'''4. Risks now and in the future (CC and others):'''

* Risk of flooding locally during heavy rainstorms

* Risk of failure of older drainage lines/blockages leaving to backflows and flooding

* Risk of levees failing and causing flooding

* Risk of dams failing and causing flooding downriver/dams overflowing and gates having to be reopened urgently, leaving to flooding

* Risk of loss of life when people unfamiliar with flood waters take chances in crossing overflowing bridges, etc

* Risk of flooding in human settlements/houses and business areas

* Risk of drainage system failure contaminating drinking water systems

* For cities at mouth of major river systems (coastal cities), risk of heavy rain in any arts of the watershed leaving to flooding downriver in the city


'''5. Adaptation options to address the CC risks:'''

* Upgrade old drainage systems and expand capacity

* Build underground storm water storage areas (e.g. water storage under the Washington Mall, in Washington DC, USA; Bangkok City) and optionally pumps to redirect water to alternative outlets (e.g. Tokyo example)

* Upgrade flow channels to re-direct storm water to parks in the city (e.g. Copenhagen)

* Redirect river flows towards coastal cities to alternative channels into the sea to reduce flooding (e.g. Nadi, Fiji)

* Slow down river flows with dams or other structures along the river, to reduce flooding in coastal cities

* Build levees

* Build walls around important infrastructure (e.g. around a museum)

* Builds walls around coastal cities (NY – xxx)


'''6. Required other actions to ensure adaptation is successful (e.g. baseline development investments, etc):'''

* Enforce zoning laws for city dwellings to avoid flooding damage of houses

* Develop evacuation plans and conduct drills

* Plan cities to include soakways, directed drainage channels, etc


'''7. Adaptation potential rating'''

* Medium?


=== SYSTEM: Crop production ===

'''1. System name: ''' Crop Production 

'''2. Brief description: '''

This is the basic system of growing crops, choice of which would be based on standard parameters of weather patterns, general site suitability (soil, land quality), mainly based on rainfall patterns, and subject to regular pests and diseases. Main crops are subsistence crops, and choice is sometimes based on market conditions.

System model/analytical model: 

Well-developed analytical model exists based on the IIASA/FAO Agroecological Zoning (AEZ) system, and it has been parameterized to run for the whole globe, covering all major crops. Nationally specific models exist such as for Kenya (original developed of the AEZ methodology), China and Thailand. The Global AEZ system is available online and has been applied to various global questions.

<Key references>


'''3. Current constraints (factors of production etc): '''

* Rainfall patterns

* Quality of inputs (fertilizer, mechanization, extension services)

* Quality and suitability of seed (provenance) for changing conditions


'''4. Risks now and in the future (CC and others): '''

* Risk of crop failing due to changing growing season weather conditions (floods, drought/aridity, changed patterns affecting phenological development, etc)

* Risk of low yield due to poor inputs (limited fertilizer input)

* Risk of crop failure due to pest outbreaks, such as locust, fall army worms, etc


'''5. Adaptation options to address the CC risks: '''

* Changing crop types and provenances (to crops maturing in a shorter growth season, drought-tolerant varieties) – these may require new breeding programmes

* Improve water management through irrigation, damming, etc to reduce dependence on rain-fed production

* Managing the full range of risks with a combination of actions and insurance at the local or national level

* Dealing with extreme temperatures to avoid frost damage, and dessication


'''6. Required other actions to ensure adaptation is successful (e.g. baseline development investments, etc): '''

* Data driven crop production system that utilizes best available climate information services

* National insurance through ARC to manage risk of major crop failure and avoid food insecuty disaster

* Crop breeding, data collection and monitoring to support extension services and support to farmers, manage pests and diseases


'''7. Adaptation potential rating'''

* Medium to high


[[SYSTEM: Crop commodity: Maize]] 

=== SYSTEM: Urban water system for city ===

'''1. System name: ''' Urban water system for [Lilongwe] 

'''2. Brief description: '''

Water supply to residents of the City of Lilongwe is the responsibility of the Lilongwe Water Board. Water is sourced from several sources and pumped to several processing points before being piped to users. There is no system to recycle water.

System model/analytical model: 

The standard model of an urban water system such as for California, represents a typical urban water system (water source point dynamics, distribution infrastructure (clean water, recycling, waste))
Network of water supply system and withdrawals


'''3. Current constraints (factors of production etc): '''

* Rainfall amounts for the basin and resultant flow in main river outlets (e.g. Malingunde river/dams) (drought conditions, etc)

* Quality of the water dams as affected by land degradation in the basin resulting in siltation 

* Old infrastructure for conveyance of the water to processing plants and to users

* Electricity supply for water pumps


'''4. Risks now and in the future (CC and others): '''

* Risk of water shortages in the source dams due to low rainfall, heat wave or drought

* Risk of water shortages to satisfy increasing demand due to expanding city/increasing population

* Risk of interruption in water supply due to equipment failure (pumps, pipelines, etc)

* Risk of interrupted water supply due to disruptions in power supply


'''5. Adaptation options to address the CC risks: '''

* Expand options for source water to address projected needs in the medium- and long-term, such as building a pipeline from alternative sources (e.g. Lake Malawi) or expand use of belowground aquifers


'''6. Required other actions to ensure adaptation is successful'''

* Establish water use controls, policies, including for periods of limited water supply

* Develop contingency plans to deal with severe water shortages or distrupted service (cf. India’s Chennai and water by rail; water tankers; bans on water use for gardening, carwash)

* Citizen participation in water saving strategies (lessons from Cape Town)

* Use of automated monitoring systems to identify water leakages and reduce waste


'''7. Adaptation potential rating'''

* Medium to high?

 
=== COMPLEX SYSTEM: Lake Malawi and its many functions ===

Biodiversity, Fisheries, hydropower generation, greenbelt irrigation initiative, tourism

'''1. System name: ''' Lake Malawi 

'''2. Brief description: '''

Unique biodiversity: Lake Malawi is special to all Malawians and globally for a number of reasons. It is a center of biodiversity endemism and is home to unique fish species. It boosts the Lake Malawi National Park, a UNESCO heritage site, an underwater nature reserve. See https://whc.unesco.org/en/list/289/. It has been a UNESCO World Heritage site since 1984, celebrated for its stunning ecosystem that is home to hundreds of fish species, Lake Malawi National Park’s importance when it comes to the study of evolution is likened to that of the Galapagos Islands finches!  Another key feature is that of the midges that swarm over Lake Malawi and can be seen from space.


Lake Malawi as a major water body supplying water for irrigation and drinking water

Lake Malawi as source of the Shire River, implications for hydroelectricity generation on the Shire

Lake Malawi as a tourist destination


'''3. Current constraints (factors of production etc): '''

* The dynamics of the lake levels, lake temperatures and condition, and how it responds to various factors affecting the watershed area, are not fully understood, despite several major research projects on the lake (GEF, IGBP/PAGES, etc) 

* Land degradation in the watershed area is assumed to cause siltation and changes in inflow to the lake, affecting its ecology and overall water levels

* Variability in rainfall in the watershed area is assumed to impact inflow, and ultimately the outflow.

* Inadequate data collection relating to water inputs, withdrawals, water temperatures etc, are a major constraint to a data-driven analysis of the lake and its management

* Mining activities in the watersed area are on the increase, in particular for Uranium in the north, coal and others.


'''4. Risks now and in the future (CC and others): '''

* Risk of water levels dropping too low for outflow through the Shire River to sustain electricity generation downriver

* Risk of shanging water temperatures after fisk breeding at different levels of the lake, severely impacting the unique fish biodiversity of the lake

* Risk of increasing land degradation in the watershed area increasing siltation and limiting river inflows into the lake

* Risk of contaminants from the uranium mine in the north of the country severely damaging fish ecology and production, and also risk of contamination of drinking water and water for major irrigation efforts along the lake and in the Shire Basin

* Risk of contamination of the lake leading to losses in tourist income

* Risk of collapse of the fish industry based on the lake, in particular for main species of tilapia/chambo, usipa, catfish and several other species.


'''5. Adaptation options to address the CC risks: '''

* Rehabilitation of landscapes in the watershed areas to ensure steady water inputs into the lake

* Fish genebanks to safeguard the unique biological biodiversity of the lake

* Restrictions on fishing to manage yields under changing conditions

* Construction and rehabilitation of barrages on the Shire River to manage water flows in the Shire

* Careful tradeoff in water usage between irrigation, water for Lilongwe, and water needed to outflow into the Shire River for hydroelectricity generation

* Fish breeding to sustain population of key species


'''6. Required other actions to ensure adaptation is successful'''

* Establish water use controls, policies, including for periods of low water levels

* Develop contingency plans to deal with severely low water levels in terms of electricity supply for the country

* Use of automated monitoring systems to measure inflows and outflows


'''7. Adaptation potential rating'''

* Low to medium?

= Key Climate and non-Climate Vulnerabilities and Risks =

* xxxx
* xxxx

= Priority Projects and Programmes =


'''Goals, objectives and expected outcomes of adaptation'''


'''Taking a medium- to long-term approach and avoiding maladaptation'''


[[a.  National climate change adaptation programme: umbrella programme ]]


'''b.	Projects and programmes to address key risks for the country'''


[[1. Climate Resilient Integrated Watershed Management (Total: US$ 84 million, PPCR/SPCR)]]

[[2. Building Climate Change Resilience in Selected Agricultural Value Chains in Malawi (Total: US$ 26 million, PPCR/SPCR)]]

[[3. Sustainable Fisheries Sector and Fisheries Value Chain in Malawi through Improved Climate Resilient Lake Ecosystem Conservation and Management (Total: US$ 18.2 million, PPCR/SPCR)]]

[[4. Strengthening Climate Resilience of Smallholder Farmers in Malawi (Total: US$ 13.5 million, PPCR/SPCR- FAO)]]

[[5. Operationalising Malawi’s Climate Services Centre (Total: US$ 17.3 million, PPCR/SPCR)]]

[[6. Forest landscape restoration programme]]

[[7. Lake Malawi Ecosystem]]

[[8. Lake Chilwa Ecosystem and Value Chains]]

[[9. National physical development planning under climate change]]

[[10. Building a resilient national food security]]


'''c.	Essential cross-cutting projects/programmes'''


[[1. Creating an effective adaptation process and system (mainstreaming/integration, policies, governance, etc.)]]

[[2. Climate information services and early warnings systems, systematic observations]]

[[3. Active monitoring of key systems: crop production, water resources, ecosystems, etc]]

[[4. M&E system – individual projects and in aggregate for the country]]

[[5. Capacity development for implementation of adaptation and support to the process including data and information management, etc]]

= Alignment with the GCF country programme =


The priorities in the NAP will form the 5-year country programme for engagement with the GCF as follows:


'''Year 1'''


'''Year 2'''


'''Year 3'''


'''Year 4'''


'''Year 5'''

= Adaptation Actors =

[[Government]]

[[Civil society and non-governmental organisations]]

[[International aid agencies programmes]]

= Main Plans and Strategies = 


== Recent Relevant Strategies and Plans ==



* MGDS III
* NAPA 2006/2015
* PPCR/SPCR
* NRS
* Irish Aid V&A
* USAID V&A
* WB Environment Report
* Energy Strategy
* Greenbelt Initiative
* Agriculture SWAP
* CC Investment Plan


'''The National Resilience Strategy, 2018-2030''' The five year National Resilience strategy aims to break the cycle of humanitarian assistance and has the following pillars; Resilient agriculture growth; Risk Reduction, Flood Control and Early Warning and Response Systems; human Capacity, livelihoods and social protection and Catchment protection and Management. It’s a long term plan up to 2030 and it’s in line with Sustainable Development Goals. Through the Plan, government brings a multi-dimensional approach to control floods, reduce food insecurity and grow exports, protect and manage the environment and catchments, enhance early warning system and provide social support interventions using a single monitoring and evaluation framework, enhanced coordination, pooling of resources and prioritization.


'''National climate change management Policy, 2016''' The Policy’s goal is to promote climate change adaptation, mitigation, technology transfer and capacity building for sustainable livelihoods through Green Economy measures for Malawi. Policy priorities include; Climate Change Adaptation, Mitigation, Capacity Building, Education, Training and Awareness, Research, Technology Development and Transfer, and Systematic Observation and Climate Change Financing. Cross cutting issues include gender consideration, population dynamics and HIV/AIDS. 

'''National climate change investment plan 2003 - 2018''' The plan focuses on adaption and mitigation with the following priorities; 

Mitigation:

* Reduction of Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) 

* Waste Management and Pollution Control Programme 

* Enhancing Energy Saving Technology Programme 

Adaptation:

* Integrated Watershed Management Programme 

* Improving Climate Change Community Resilience through Agriculture Production 

* Climate Change Proofing of infrastructure Development 

* Enhancing Disaster Risk Management 

* Capacity building in climate change 


'''Malawi Vision 2020''' This is the country’s overarching long term strategy that aspires for a technologically driven middle-income economy while providing an enabling framework for addressing climate change and other environmental challenges in a comprehensive manner 


'''Malawi Growth and Development strategy III''' 


'''Intended nationally determined contributions (INDC) 2015''' The INDC under adaptation prioritised agriculture (crops, livestock, fisheries), water resources, health, infrastructure, land-use planning, transport, population and human settlements, disaster risk management, forestry; wildlife, energy and gender. 
The key sectors under mitigation include; energy, industrial processes and product use (IPPU), agriculture, forestry and other land use (AFOLU), and waste. These sectors are based on national priorities and there is emphasis on multi-sectoral collaboration in implementation, capacity building, research, and consideration for disaster risk management as well as the need to harmonise policies. 


'''National Adaptation Programmes of Action, 2006''' The NAPA focused on improving community resilience to CC impacts, improving Agriculture productivity and preparedness to cope with disasters and improving early warning. Adaptation needs have been identified for the agriculture, water, forestry, wildlife, fisheries, human health, energy and gender sectors. Five urgent actions were identified which include; 

1. Improving community resilience to climate change through the development of sustainable rural livelihoods 

2. Restoring forests in the Upper, Middle and Lower Shire Valleys catchments to reduce siltation and the associated water flow problems 

3. Improving agricultural production under erratic rains and changing climatic conditions 

4. Improving Malawi’s preparedness to cope with droughts and floods 

5. Improving climate monitoring to enhance Malawi’s early warning capability and decision making and sustainable utilization of Lake Malawi and lakeshore areas resources

= Country Profile = 

== Climate change policies ==

* National Climate Change Management Policy (2016)
* Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (2015) 
* National Climate Change Investment Plan (2013) 
* Malawi Growth and Development Strategy II and III (2011-2016) 
* National Adaptation Programmes of Action (2006 as revised in 2015) 
* Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions (2015) 
* National Disaster Risk Management Policy (2015) 
* National Agriculture Policy (2016) 
* National Irrigation Policy (2016) 
* National Forestry Policy (2016) 
* National Water Policy (2005) 
* National Environmental Policy (2004). 
* Decentralised Environmental Management Policy (1998) 
* National Fisheries and Aquaculture Policy (2016) 
* National Resilience Strategy (under preparation)

== Climate Change Projects under UNFCCC funds: GEF, LDCF, GCF ==

=== GCF ===

GCF Project Number FP099; Countries: Burundi, Cameroon, Djibouti, Indonesia, Kenya, Madagascar, Malawi, Mongolia, Morocco, Nigeria, Uganda; Region: Africa, Asia-Pacific;  Theme: Mitigation; '''Project Name: Climate Investor One;''' Access Modality: Private International; Total GCF Funding: $100,000,000.00; Total Co-Financing:  $721,500,000.00; Approval Date: 10/20/2018; Disbursements: $21,487,762.00; Duration (months): 240; Funding type: Reimbursable Grants; Total Value Equity $821,500,000.00


GCF Project Number FP002: Countries: Malawi; Region: Africa; Theme: Adaptation; '''Project Name: Scaling up the use of Modernized Climate information and Early Warning Systems in Malawi;''' Access Modality: Public International; Total GCF Funding: $12,295,000.00; Total Co-Financing: $3,970,000.00; Approval Date: 11/5/2015; Disbursements: $2,377,039.00; $3,332,276.00; Duration (months): 72; Funding Type: Grants; Total Value Equity $16,265,000.00

Source: https://unfccc.int/climatefinance/gcf/gcf_data; Accessed: 30/11/2019

=== LDCF ===

xxxx
xxxx


=== SCCF ===

None


=== GEF ===

tbc

=== Adaptation Fund ===

None

== Development Projects with Climate Change Components: Donor funded/Loans ==


== National Reports to the UNFCCC and Paris Agreement ==

* First National Communication
* Second National Communication
* INDC